The National Committee on North Korea
In Memoriam: Don Oberdorfer
July 24, 2015
NCNK members mourn the loss of Don Oberdorfer - friend, mentor, and author of "The Two Koreas," among other books. Don was a renowned journalist - a truth-teller to whom the American people and all of his readers owe deep gratitude.
The Iran Deal's Implications for North Korea
July 16, 2015
In the wake of a final nuclear deal with Iran, there has been some fresh commentary on the potential for renewed nuclear diplomacy with North Korea. Writing at Witness to Transformation, Stephan Haggard examines some of the implementation procedures for the Iran deal, and what they could mean if negotiations with North Korea are ever restarted. He looks at how the multi-staged sequencing in the Iran deal addresses issues of credibility, pointing out that most sanctions relief will not come into effect until after Iran has complied with its commitments. Haggard also walks through the process of "snapback" sanctions in the event of an Iranian breach of obligations, arguing that continued close monitoring and diplomacy will be necessary to address such circumstances.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has said that the recent nuclear deal with Iran could serve as an "active model" for a diplomatic solution to North Korea's nuclear program, while the ROK Foreign Ministry's statement on the Iran agreement also expressed "hopes that meaningful progress will also be made in the North Korean nuclear issue through serious negotiations among concerned countries."
Although few experts predict that the Iran deal will lead to an immediate change in the prospects for nuclear negotiations for North Korea, several have pointed to its potential impact over the long term. In an interview with Voice of America, David Straub said that “If the [Iranian] agreement is successfully implemented, I think, the U.S. new administration and the international community are likely to focus even more on North Korea.” Also speaking with Voice of America, Mitchell Reiss added that the Iran deal "sends a message to those elements in the North Korean regime who are interested in reaching a nuclear agreement with the United States, because it shows that even though it is very difficult and time-consuming, it is possible"
News Release: NCNK Thanks the Henry Luce Foundation For Its Support
July 13, 2015
The National Committee on North Korea (NCNK) is pleased to announce receipt of a $45,000 grant from the Henry Luce Foundation toward continued funding for NCNK programming. Support from the Luce Foundation has enabled NCNK to host a series of events providing informed discussions on a wide range of topics related to North Korea and U.S. – North Korea relations.
Originally established by Mercy Corps in 2004, NCNK and its members are dedicated to principled engagement with North Korea. Through the events sponsored by the Luce Foundation, NCNK members, policymakers, academics, US lawmakers, journalists, as well as the general public has become more informed on the latest developments within North Korea on topics such as the country’s economy, nuclear and missile programs and humanitarian situation.
June 26, 2015
NCNK has updated its Issue Brief on North Korea's diplomatic relations, which provides a brief overview of the history of Pyongyang's foreign relations and tallies countries with which it has established diplomatic relations. Revisions include an updated list of countries hosting DPRK embassies, and foreign embassies in Pyongyang.
The Issue Brief is available here.
June 25, 2015
Jerome Sauvage, the UN Resident Coordinator in North Korea from 2009 to 2013, addresses some of the myths surrounding the humanitarian situation in and and to North Korea. While admitting that he remains far from a full understanding of the country, Sauvage argues that these myths have led to misguided policies.
First, Sauvage says, it should be understood that North Korea is not in a permanent humanitarian crisis, in which the only remedy is external support, as it was during the famine years. But even though the humanitarian situation has marginally improved over the past year, chronic malnutrition remains a major concern, access to health care is lacking, and the population remains highly vulnerable to shocks.
Humanitarian aid from the UN is not in a position to prop up the regime and helps disadvantaged population, Sauvage adds, pointing out the highly-targeted nature of the UN programs taking place in the country. He also notes that while the UN program in North Korea is small compared to the UN programs in place in countries with similar populations and development levels, it has one of the most expansive mandates. The UN programs have also faced challenges from North Korea's failure to meet its obligations for cooperation, such as providing access and adequate data.
Sauvage concludes by discussing how the nuclear issue and international focus on North Korean human rights may affect resident UN agencies in the future, for example by incorporating a "rights up front" approach to their work. Despite the challenges that the UN agencies face, he argues, their role in comprehensively engaging North Korea on political, humanitarian, and human rights issues is worth preserving.
For the full article, click here.
June 22, 2015
Writing in The National Interest, NCNK Member Leon Sigal argues that the U.S. lost the chance to engage in meaningful negotiations with North Korea earlier this year, and that Pyongyang now appears likely to conduct another satellite launch this fall and possibly another nuclear test after that.
Sigal states that although North Korea's January offer of a nuclear test moratorium in return for the suspension of US-ROK joint military exercises was unacceptable, the US should have used it as an opportunity to restart dialogue. "It turned out," he adds, "that the North seemed ready to settle for modulating rather than cancelling the largest exercises and seemed prepared to suspend not just nuclear testing, but also missile and satellite launches and fissile material production in return."
Sigal concludes that increasing pressure on Pyongyang in the hope of regime collapse is unlikely to succeed. Instead, he writes, "Better to hope that Pyongyang’s tests fail and look for another opening to negotiate."
For the full article, click here.
New Research on North Korea from the East-West Center
June 18, 2015
The East-West Center has recently released a pair of new research reports that tackle two important policy issues related to North Korea: the relatively new challenge of how to deter cyber attacks, and the older challenge of effective policy coordination among allies and partners in East Asia.
"North Korea and the Sony Hack: Exporting Instability Through Cyberspace" by Stephan Haggard and Jon Lindsay analyzes North Korea’s hacking of Sony Pictures. Rather that diving into the technical aspects of the issue, the authors focus on North Korea’s use of asymmetrical attacks against South Korea and the United States. They note that the Sony hack is unique because it resulted in the U.S. government’s first attribution of a cyber attack to foreign nation. The authors explain that the situation on the Korean peninsula can be characterized as a stability-instability paradox – wherein mutual deterrence decreases the likelihood of a major war, but increases the likelihood of smaller provocations – and argue that the Sony hack was a digital manifestation of this paradox. Cyber attacks have traditionally been hard to attribute with certainty, making deterrence particularly difficult, but Haggard and Lindsey identify several unique aspects of the Sony hack that forced the U.S. government to respond. They conclude by suggesting that visible improvements in the U.S. capability to attribute cyber attacks, as well as the credible threat of retaliation, could be a way to deter future cyber aggression.
“The North Korean Crisis and Regional Responses” by Utpal Vyas, Ching-Chang Chen, and Denny Roy, is a collection of essays that address different aspects of the challenges presented by North Korea's nuclear weapons program, and brings in regional perspectives on the crisis. Although North Korea's neighbors all have an urgent interest in resolving the nuclear issue, effective regional cooperation on the matter has been elusive, because of the greatly varying national interests at stake. The result, the study finds, is that this lack of regional coordination will continue to preclude an effective solution to the problem, leaving North Korea isolated but continuing to build its nuclear stockpile and delivery systems for the foreseeable future. This book will help researchers identify the gaps that distinguish regional policies toward North Korea, and includes some perspectives that are not always represented in such collections, such as Taiwan's view of the North Korea problem.
June 16, 2015
NCNK has released an updated issue brief on North Korea-Japan Relations, concisely covering topics including the abduction issue, the role of Chongryon (the ethnic Korean pro-DPRK organization in Japan), and the history of diplomatic talks between Japan and the DPRK,
The updated issue brief is available here.
Who We Are
The National Committee is a non-partisan coalition of individuals with extensive and complementary knowledge of and direct experience related to the society, economy, government, and history of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
We are a diverse group. A number of members served as diplomats in some of the landmark U.S.-DPRK negotiations. Some have authored major books on the history, society, and security of the Korean Peninsula. Other members have worked in virtually all parts of North Korea, and on issues related to the country's current economic, humanitarian, refugee, and medical crises. Some of our experience reaches back to the era of the Korean War. Most have extensive contacts in the Republic of Korea, China, Japan, and Russia related to the Korean Peninsula. While the National Committee on North Korea is non-governmental, several of the members have worked in official positions and have ongoing ties with current or past administrations and with the United States Congress.
The idea to form a National Committee on North Korea originated during The Musgrove III Conference held in mid-May 2004, which was attended by many of the founding committee members. The first meeting was held on November 4, 2004.