Cathcart: China and the North Korean Succession
January 27, 2011
Adam Cathcart, editor of the blog Sino-NK, has collected and edited a lengthy dossier, "China and the North Korean Succession," containing translations of Chinese materials concerning North Korea:
This dossier, the first in an ongoing series of SinoNK.com digests on relations between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), draws upon a number of open source Chinese materials to provide a clearer sketch of the Sino-North Korean relationship during the eight days following the announcement of Kim Jong-Il’s death.
This dossier represents the tip of the iceberg when it comes to Chinese interactions with and analysis of North Korea in this period. A careful approach to the documents selected, rather than an attempt at true comprehensiveness, was favored. Several of the sources featured in this dossier are being made available for the first time in English. These include dispatches from the Chinese Embassy in Pyongyang, more accurate translations from state media stories of Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao’s visits to the DPRK Embassy in Beijing, and editorials from Huanqiu Shibao [环球时 报/ Global Times] and important “think-tank intellectuals” in China. Also included is a sample of what Kim’s death looked like from the perspective of one rather active corner of the microblogging site Sina Weibo.
For more resources on the new leadership in North Korea, see NCNK's After Kim Jong-il briefing book.
Spencer Kim: "A New Model" for Engaging North Korea
January 27, 2011
Spencer Kim, following the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council for Korea, calls for a "new model" for relations between North Korea and the world, one that is “holistic, sequential, sustained and consensual.” He also addresses the importance of creating a stronger base of knowledge on North Korea:
The second element of the “New Model” is the creation of a reliable “epistemic” community on North Korea. It was clear to those of us on the council, that there is no agreement among “experts” on North Korea on even on the most narrow set of facts, and no reliable understanding of the workings of the international community, and the players in Northeast Asia, among North Koreans. In other words, considering the magnitude of the issue, we don’t know much about each other ― but we do have a full panoply of preconceptions and stereotypes constantly played back by both the media and propaganda to the point that reality has been distorted out of all proportion. And we are all, on all sides, unconsciously victims of the distortion. Like the poor souls in Plato’s Cave, we see the shadows and allow our imaginations to conjure up a distorted reality.
Kurt Campbell on US-Asia Relations and Engagement with North Korea
January 20, 2011
Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell spoke at the Stimson Center on Thursday on a number of topics in US-Asian relations, including future engagement with North Korea the possibility of the resumption of the Six-Party Talks (discussion of North Korea begins 28 minutes into the video).
2012 Joint New Year Editorial
January 1, 2012
On January 1, 2012 the DPRK published its Joint New Year's Editorial mourning the loss of Kim Jong Il, announcing that 2012 will be the year when "Kim Jong Il's plan for achieving prosperity will bear a brilliant fruit, and the year of a grand march, when a new century of Kim Il Sung's Korea begins." The editorial extols Kim Jong Un as "precisely the great Kim Jong Il," and goes on to state that the country "[M]ust vigorously launch an all-out drive to implement our Party's grand strategy for achieving prosperity," with an emphasis on light industry, electricity production, and solving the food problem. While referencing the importance of the “Songun-based revolutionary leadership” and the KPA, the editorial proclaims that “To strengthen the Party and enhance its leadership role to the maximum is the decisive guarantee for unfolding a new era of prosperity true to the behests of Kim Jong Il,” stating that "'Let us do many more things for the benefit of the people' -this must be the slogan of action and conscience for our officials in supporting the intentions of the great Party."
In addition to extolling the DPRK's relations with China and Russia, the editorial states that
The entire nation, under the unfurled banner of anti-war and peace, should smash every move of reckless military provocation, arms buildup and war exercises against the north. Constant vigilance against the danger of military collaboration of the bellicose forces within the country and without should be maintained, and the US aggressor forces, the main obstacle to peace in the Korean peninsula, should be pulled out from south Korea.
To read the full editorial click here.
Briefing Book: Death of Kim Jong-Il
December 20, 2011
NCNK has published a new briefing book on the death of Kim Jong-il and the leadership transition in North Korea, featuring statements and video from the North Korean government, messages from international officials and US politicians, and articles and interviews of NCNK members. This briefing book will continue to be updated with new information and resources as they become available.
Death of Kim Jong Il
December 18, 2011
Kim Jong-il died on Saturday reportedly suffering a massive heart attack during a train ride. He was 69 or 70 years old, according to various accounts. The DPRK has announced 12 days of formal mourning through December 29.
The Korea Central News Agency released the following statement:
Kim Jong Il, general secretary of the Workers’ Party of Korea, chairman of the DPRK National Defence Commission and supreme commander of the Korean People’s Army, passed away from a great mental and physical strain at 08:30 December 17, 2011, on train during a field guidance tour.
The WPK Central Committee and Central Military Commission, DPRK National Defence Commission, Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly and Cabinet released a notice on Saturday informing the WPK members, servicepersons and all other people of his passing away.
Rangel Resolution on Korean War MIA/POWs Approved by House
December 14, 2011
A resolution calling for the repatriation of POW/MIAs and abductees in North Korea was approved by the House of Representatives yesterday in a voice vote. The resolution calls for the US government to continue remains recovery operations for the estimated 5,500 American soldiers buried in North Korea, and for the repatriation of the 100,000 South Korean civilians abducted by the North during the Korean War.
“Not a day goes by that I am not thankful that I was able to return home after my service in Korea,” Rep. Charles Rangel, who introduced the resolution, said. "Sadly, thousands of American soldiers and South Koreans have not made it back for 60 years. I hope this resolution could bring some closure to their families and friends.”
In October, North Korea and the United States agreed to resume operations to recover the remains of US servicemen unaccounted for during the Korean War. The remains recovery program, initiated in 1996, was suspended in 2005 amid growing tensions with North Korea.
For more information, see NCNK's briefing book on Korean War POW/MIAs.
North Korea's New Course
December 8, 2011
NCNK Members Robert Carlin and John Lewis write in the Los Angeles Times that the focus of North Korea's policies has shifted decisively toward China, and that Pyongyang's 1991-2009 strategy to seek rapprochement with the United States has run its course.
Any shards remaining from the North's previous, decades-long effort to normalize ties with the U.S. were swept away by current leader Kim Jong Il's trip in May to China, his third in barely a year. Based on our discussions with Chinese officials, we believe that during that visit, Pyongyang and Beijing came to an understanding that, in preparation for planned, major domestic political events in 2012, both sides require sustained political stability, a convergence of interests that provides the opportunity for expanding bilateral relations beyond anything enjoyed in the past. The North is building toward a "prosperous and powerful" nation in celebration of the Kim Il Sung centenary in April; the Chinese are looking toward their 18th Party Congress scheduled for late next year. In both cases, it was apparently decided, stability on the Korean peninsula would serve economic programs and the succession of a new generation of leaders.
In the arrangements — formal and informal — that emerged from Kim Jong Il's discussions with his hosts, Pyongyang agreed not to "make trouble" (as the Chinese described it to us) in the short term, presumably meaning no deliberate military provocations, no third nuclear test and no launch of another ballistic missile. Beyond that, the talks ended in a compromise that neither side found entirely satisfactory. Kim came away with less aid and a smaller Chinese commitment of support than he had sought, though Pyongyang typically asks for more than it can get.
The North did, however, receive increased access to both Chinese capital and technology in spite of United Nations and other foreign sanctions. Kim also obtained, through the establishment of joint economic zones with China along the Yalu River, a locale to test adjustments necessary to economic development, adjustments that would fall short of what Beijing considers genuine economic reform. Chinese President Hu Jintao, we were told, had to settle for Kim's promise to cause less trouble but without a North Korean commitment to serious steps toward denuclearization.
North Korea and the Food-Aid Dilemma
Mort Abramowitz argues in The National Interest that the US claim of reluctance to deliver aid to North Korea because of fears of diversion and inadequate monitoring runs contrary to the claims of South Korean observers and US-based NGOs. "Without context," he writes, "one might be led to believe that North Korea is refusing any monitoring of the food-aid distribution and disallowing any contact between its citizens and international organizations."
Quite to the contrary, this is not the case even in recent South Korean experience. In August, representatives from the Korean Council for Reconciliation and Cooperation, a South Korea-based NGO, visited North Korea to observe and monitor the distribution of aid to the people of Sariwon; a senior South Korean official monitored private wheat deliveries earlier this month. In October, after visiting the provinces most affected by this year’s flooding, representatives from U.S.-based NGOs Mercy Corps and Samaritan’s Purse noted that they were very satisfied with the monitoring and oversight of the food aid. They not only delivered food aid to the intended needy but also expressed confidence they can continue to do so. Other countries have ponied up funds for food, which reportedly is being properly delivered via safeguards that were agreed upon between Pyongyang, the World Food Program and the European Union.
For all the fastidiousness displayed by the U.S. government, there is no indication that it has recently discussed in detail with North Korea provisions for adequately monitoring food aid. The last agreement reached was in 2008 under a Republican administration.
Meanwhile, NGOs, international agencies and numerous independent scholars have continued to warn against letting conditions further deteriorate in North Korea. UN undersecretary general Valerie Amos returned from North Korea in October reporting “terrible levels of malnutrition” wreaking havoc, in particular among the very young. By studying the flux of prices in the North Korean market, Marcus Noland of the Peterson Institute for International Economics has pointed out how the price of grain is continuing to rise even after the harvest, unlike in other years, painting a foreboding picture of the winter to come. Alongside accounts by NGOs of hunger-induced illnesses and lack of medical supplies, the signs of a worsening humanitarian situation could not be clearer. The consequences are alarming. In the short term: many children will die or be permanently blighted.
For more on food aid, see NCNK's humanitarian news digest.
Leon Sigal on Stopping a Nuclear North Korea
December 2, 2011
Writing in The National Interest, NCNK Member Leon Sigal argues that the Obama administration needs to begin negotiating with North Korea to suspend its uranium enrichment program, pointing out that the possible threat of secret enrichment facilities shouldn't stop action on the existing threat of the known enrichment facility at Yongbyon:
This week North Korea confirmed what satellite imagery has already detected, that its construction of a new nuclear power plant is “progressing apace.” So is its enrichment of uranium to fuel that plant. That spells double trouble for U.S. security. When completed, that power plant, like all nuclear reactors, will generate plutonium as a by-product of energy-generating fission. And given enough time and centrifuges, low-enriched uranium for nuclear fuel can be turned into highly enriched uranium for nuclear weapons.
Washington can’t stop these dangerous developments without negotiating with Pyongyang. A third round of bilateral talks is likely this month, but talks are not negotiations. Wary of partisan criticism, President Obama has been loath to deal. Instead, he is insisting that North Korea stop enrichment, along with nuclear and missile testing, as a precondition for resuming six-party talks.
That won’t play in Pyongyang. It is willing to suspend nuclear and missile tests while negotiations proceed, but it won’t suspend enrichment at Yongbyon monitored by international inspectors without getting energy or other aid in return. As its Foreign Ministry spokesman put it, “The DPRK is ready to resume the six-party talks without preconditions and implement the joint statement in a phased manner on the principle of simultaneous actions.”
Congressional Appropriations Bill on Food Aid Monitoring
November 16, 2011
A Minibus appropriations bill containing funding for the Departments of Agriculture, Justice, and Transportation, among other agencies, has recently passed through Congress and is awaiting the president's signature. The bill requires that funds dispersed through the Food for Peace Act "may only be used to provide assistance to recipient nations if adequate monitoring and controls, as determined by the Administrator of the Agency for International Development, are in place to ensure that emergency food aid is received by the intended beneficiaries in areas affected by food shortages and not diverted for unauthorized or inappropriate purposes."
This language was included in the bill to ensure that any future aid program to North Korea contain adequate monitoring provisions. The Congressional Record states that "the conferees believe that food aid should not be used as a political tool but that recipient nations do have obligations to ensure transparency and cooperation in the distribution of aid to affected populations. Should the U.S. government consider resumption of food assistance to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, it is expected that assurances will be given to protect the integrity of program execution, including monitoring, and that any remaining issues regarding previous year program delivery be satisfactorily resolved."
Representative Ed Royce, who had offered an amendment approved by the House that prohibited the use of Title II or Food for Peace funds to be spent on North Korea said that "while far from the ideal of no food aid, this provision does send an important message to the Obama Administration that there is great skepticism about turning on the aid spigot to North Korea." Royce added, "It's too bad that Senate Democrats didn't understand the way food aid bolsters the North Korean regime. But this provision has the potential to end aid down the road."
For a list of recent appropriations bills with language relevant to North Korea policy, see our Appropriations briefing book. For more on food aid, see our digest of DPRK humanitarian news.
South Korea to Send Medical Aid to North
November 8, 2011
South Korea has authorized the World Health Organization to resume the distribution of ROK-financed medical supplies in North Korea, the New York Times reports. South Korea had donated $13 million in medicine and medical supplies to the WHO to be distributed in North Korea in 2009, but suspending the program after the sinking of the warship Cheonan in March 2010. On Tuesday, the South Korean Unification Ministry requested that the remaining $7 million in the program be distributed.
South Korea has not yet announced a decision on sending food aid as well as medicine to North Korea. ROK officials say that they are willing to provide significant amounts of aid in the event of a nationwide food crisis in the North, but that with the harvest season just begun, food shortages in the North have not yet reached a crisis level.
For more on the food situation in North Korea, see NCNK's digest of DPRK humanitarian news.
University of Georgia Track II Conference Statement
November 4, 2011
Last month, Professor Han Park and the University of Georgia hosted a track II conference with representatives from the United States and the two Koreas. The participants released a conference statement, signaling their agreement on issues including the need for all parties to recommit to past agreements; the need to “take necessary measures” to prevent future clashes in the West Sea; and the need for humanitarian cooperation in areas including food aid, family reunions, and joint MIA remains recovery.
The text of the Conference Statement is below. Click here for a PDF.
The Triad Track-II Dialogue on Peace-Building and Reintegration of the Korean Peninsula convened at the University of Georgia under the sponsorship of its Center for the Study of Global Issues (GLOBIS) in Athens, Georgia, U.S.A. from October 17 to October 20, 2011. The participants from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, and the United States of America affirm that discussions increased mutual understanding and reduced mistrust. They reached consensus on the following points:
1. We agree that the three countries should build trust through dialogue and promote mutual acceptance and respect for sovereignty and diverse systems.
2. We recommend that all concerned parties reaffirm their commitment to past agreements, particularly agreements entered into by heads of state.
3. We recognize the need to replace the current armistice with a permanent, comprehensive, and durable peace mechanism among all relevant parties.
4. Given the unfortunate past incidents in the West Sea, we emphasize that all concerned parties need to take necessary measures to prevent similar future occurrences.
5. We recommend that the three countries should actively pursue humanitarian cooperation in the areas of food aid, reunion of separated families, and a joint recovery program with respect to MIAs.
6. We agree that the three countries should build trust through vibrant exchange programs in such areas as economy, culture, education, and technology.
Given the important mission and tangible benefits of Track II, we encourage all involved parties to make use of it as a mechanism for fostering trust and cooperation. Implementation of these six points will be monitored in future Track-II Dialogues with a collective commitment to facilitate open and frank exchange.
Released by the Participants in the Triad Track-II Dialogue
Athens, Georgia, U.S.A.
October 20, 2011
Georgy Toloraya on Russia-DPRK Relations
October 24, 2011
Georgy Toloraya, Vice President of the Unity for Russia Foundation, Director of Korean Programs at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and a former diplomat with experience in both North and South Korea, spoke on Russia-DPRK relations at an event hosted by NCNK and the Korea Economic Institute. Professor Toloraya discussed a number of topics, including Russia's role in the Six-Party Talks, the proposed trans-Korean pipeline and railway, and social change in North Korea. See the video of his remarks here.
UN Humanitarian Chief Says Food Situation in North Korea Worsening
October 24, 2011
Valerie Amos, the UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, stated that North Koreans face “terrible levels of malnutrition” after a five-day fact-finding trip to the country. “Six million North Koreans urgently need food aid, but the outside world is not giving enough,” Amos said. Her findings come as humanitarian organizations have accused Washington of dithering on food aid. “It’s all wrapped in a political process,” David Austin, the North Korea program director for Mercy Corps, told the New York Times.
To read the Times article, click here. For Amos’ statement on the food situation in North Korea, click here. See NCNK’s digest of recent humanitarian news in North Korea here.
Bosworth Stepping Down as US Special Envoy to North Korea
October 18, 2011
Stephen Bosworth, the US Special Representative for North Korea Policy, will be stepping down to return to his full-time job as Dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts, the State Department announced today. Ambassador Bosworth will still lead the US delegation in exploratory talks with DPRK Vice Minister Kim Kye-gwan in Geneva next week, after which he will be replaced by Glyn Davies, currently the U.S. Ambassador to the IAEA.
Ambassador Davies has a long record as a career Foreign Service diplomat, including stints as Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, and as the State Department's Deputy Spokesman. His written statement for his 2009 confirmation hearing to be Ambassador to the IAEA can be found here.
US, North Korea Resume Talks on War Remains
October 17, 2011
The Associated Press reports that Pentagon officials will meet with their North Korean counterparts in Bangkok this week to resume efforts to identify and repatriate the remains of US troops unaccounted for during the Korea War. The US delegation will be led by Robert J. Newberry, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for POW/MIA Affairs. The remains recovery program, initiated in 1996, was suspended in 2005 amid rising tensions between North Korea and the United States.
For more information on this issue, see our Korean War POW/MIA Electronic Resource Page.
New Issue Brief on Northern Limit Line
USAID Assistance Arrives in DPRK
September 4, 2011
Relief Web, drawing from an AFP story, reported that a shipment of US flood assistance arrived by air in Pyongyang on September 3. The aid includes "includes blankets, plastic sheeting for shelters, hygiene kits, water filtration systems and medical supplies." To read the full story, click here.
For more humanitarian updates, click here.
Sen. Kerry Calls for Direct Engagement with North Korea
June 26, 2011
In a June 26 Op-Ed in the LA Times, "U.S. and North Korea: The land of lousy options", Sen. John Kerry calls for a resumption of direct engagement with North Korea. Detailing North Korean actions that have increased tension such as the pursuit of a uranium program, the continued trade in weapons despite UN Sanctions and the killing of South Koreans, Kerry calls the U.S. response "measured but firm" -- and "inadequate." He suggests that " in close consultation with our South Korean allies, we should explore steps that can reduce the threat and return to the path toward a denuclearized peninsula," and outlines interim steps towards that goal such as a moratorium on nuclear tests. He recommends a resumption of POW/MIA remains recovery missions and carefully monitored food aid as ways to re-establish contact.
DPRK TaeKwonDo Demonstration Team Visits the United States
June 17, 2011
The DPRK's National TaeKwonDo Demonstration Team has completed its second tour to the United States, where it performed in Boston, New York, and New Jersey. In a TV story regarding the tour on CNTV, Robert Carlin commented that "Cultural diplomacy is almost always about people and about the relationships and perceptions that people have. And it's about reminding people that the problems that the states have are different from and shouldn't necessarily get in the way of relationships between people."
Who We Are
The National Committee is a non-partisan coalition of individuals with extensive and complementary knowledge of and direct experience related to the society, economy, government, and history of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
We are a diverse group. A number of members served as diplomats in some of the landmark U.S.-DPRK negotiations. Some have authored major books on the history, society, and security of the Korean Peninsula. Other members have worked in virtually all parts of North Korea, and on issues related to the country's current economic, humanitarian, refugee, and medical crises. Some of our experience reaches back to the era of the Korean War. Most have extensive contacts in the Republic of Korea, China, Japan, and Russia related to the Korean Peninsula. While the National Committee on North Korea is non-governmental, several of the members have worked in official positions and have ongoing ties with current or past administrations and with the United States Congress.
The idea to form a National Committee on North Korea originated during The Musgrove III Conference held in mid-May 2004, which was attended by many of the founding committee members. The first NCNK meeting was held on November 4, 2004.
