NCNK Briefing Book: After Kim Jong-il

Analysis

Adam Cathcart, writing for Foreign Policy on December 30, discusses the debate within the Chinese press on China's relations with North Korea.

Despite what is published in China's major official media outlets, like Xinhua, or English-language venues like Global Times and China Daily, many heavyweight Chinese intellectuals and foreign-policy makers have been airing the views in more niche publications that North Korea is both untrustworthy and unstable.   

Within the parameters established by the Chinese Communist Party -- that Kim Jong Un is the face of stability and that economic engagement should be sustained for now -- practically everything else is up for debate. Some responses to Kim Jong Il's death on Chinese editorial pages, while not reaching the heights of John Bolton's mustachioed fury, betray a deep distrust of the Kim regime.

Ruediger Frank, writing in 38 North on December 21, assesses the recent revival of the Korean Workers' Party. (James Church, also writing in 38 North, reflects on Frank's discussion.)

The resuscitation of the Party’s leading role in society has been visible for a few years. Among the last hints was a group picture taken on December 13, 2011 during one of Kim Jong Il’s last field guidance trips. It shows a banner reading: “Let’s defend the Central Committee with Great Leader Kim Jong Il at its top with our lives!”

This is a remarkable deviation from earlier versions, according to which soldiers were supposed to defend only Kim Jong Il. Now it’s the Central Committee—a collective, symbolizing the Party. The order of institutions signing the official obituary published by the Central News Agency supports this analysis. It lists the Central Committee of the KWP first, followed by the Central Military Commission of the KWP, the National Defense Commission, the Standing Committee of the Supreme People’s Assembly (the parliament), and the Cabinet of the DPRK. How more obvious can the real power structure be?

Mark Manyin, in a December 22 CRS report, outlines the forces at play in the North Korean succession and assesses the strengths and weaknesses of various approaches to US policy.

North Korea represents one of the United States' biggest foreign policy challenges due to its production and proliferation of nuclear weapons and missiles, the threat of attacks against South Korea, its record of human rights abuses, and the possibility that its internal problems could destabilize Northeast Asia. The North Korean government's December 19, 2011, on the death of the country's "Dear Leader," Kim Jong-il, has the potential to be a watershed moment in the history of the Korean Peninsula and the region.

Evans Revere, writing for Brookings on December 21, counsels against an abrupt shift in policy toward North Korea.

The sudden death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has introduced an element of uncertainty into a diplomatic process that has appeared to be close to bringing about the resumption of Six-Party denuclearization talks. While Kim’s demise creates a new dynamic and the leadership transition in Pyongyang raises important questions, it hardly warrants the dire warnings of North Korean adventurism, implosion, or near-term collapse that have been issued by some analysts and commentators. Fortunately, the Obama administration is playing its cards carefully and well, and is disregarding the bad advice it is getting from some quarters. 

In Translation

Roger Cavasos, writing for the Nautilus Institute on December 23, discusses official Chinese commentary reacting to Kim Jong-il's death.

The Wall Street Journal's China Real Time blog reports on Chinese reactions on Weibo, China's most active micro-blogging platform.

Adam Cathcart, writing in his blog Sinologistical Violoncellist, translates a Chinese magazine's profile of Kim Jong-un, based on North Korean propaganda materials and conversations with North Korean colleagues. 

News

Choe Sang-hun, "North Korea Warns South to Show 'Respect' for Kim Jong-il," New York Times, December 23, 2011. Cites North Korea's official website, Uriminzokkiri, urging South Korea to "show proper respect" over the death of Kim Jong-il, and warning that South Korea's decision not to send an official delegation was "an unbearable insult and mockery of our dignity."

Images and Videos

Video of Kim Jong-il's funeral procession, via Reuters.

Photographs of Kim Jong-il's funeral procession, provided by the New York Times.

Resources and Collections

Jayshree Bajoria at the Council on Foreign Relations provides an overview of the issues facing North Korea, referencing much of CFR's previous research and analysis on the Korean Peninsula.

Stephan Haggard provides a round-up of important analysis on the North Korean succession, engaging with articles on North Korea's new leadership dynamics.

Nicholas Hamisevicz, writing at the Korea Economic Institute's blog, lists the ten people you need to know for the transition in North Korea.

Luke Herman, writing at the Korea Economic Institute's blog, offers a chart highlighting the leadership of North Korea's National Defense Commission, Politburo, and Central Military Commission.

The New York Times provides a list of several of North Korea's key leaders, along with brief summaries of their official portfolios.