By David Albright
Few can see a path today to the end of the North Korean nuclear threat. However, dramatic events can happen that fundamentally alter the strategic situation. Very few expected the collapse of the Soviet Union. Likewise, in the mid-1980s, it was inconceivable that South Africa would abandon its nuclear weapons, but it did so in the late 1980s. Despite widespread skepticism that such events could occur, many experts and governments remained committed to ending the Soviet Union threat and the South African nuclear threat. A key lesson for the North Korea situation is the maintenance of a commitment for a denuclearized Korean peninsula. A mistake would be to accept North Korea’s nuclear weapon status.
That does not mean that nuclear limitations, or step-by-step approaches should not be sought, but it does mean that any efforts by North Korea to equate itself to Pakistan, for example, or join symbolically, or in fact, any nuclear weapons grouping, or alliance should be blocked or denied legitimacy.
This is especially important as North Korea resists negotiations or seeks a closer alliance with Russia, which appears willing to accept North Korea as a nuclear power in its desperation to obtain conventional weapons for use in its illegal war against Ukraine.
Faced with heightened North Korean belligerence and unwillingness to negotiate steps toward denuclearization, South Korea, Japan, and the United States need to bolster deterrence. At the same time, they need to avoid escalation that could spark a war or taking actions that would enshrine a nuclear arms race, such as South Korea building nuclear weapons.